"Bullwhip effect" is a common marketing activities, high-risk behavior, which directly increase the supply of suppliers and inventory risk, and even disrupt the production and marketing business management scheduling order, lead to the production, supply, marketing, confusion, solve the "bullwhip effect" problem is normal enterprise marketing management and good customer service, a necessary prerequisite.
First, the "bullwhip effect" causes
Procter & Gamble (P & G) in the study "diapers" in the market demand found that the number of retail products is quite stable, volatility is not significant. Visit distribution centers in order to her situation, obviously surprised to find that volatility increases, the distribution center that they are based on aggregated demand order sellers to her orders. She further study found that retailers often based on historical sales and sales of reality Qingkuang of Yuce, Queding a more objective in order Liang, Dan To Baozhengzhege order yes Jishikede of, and able to adapt to the changes in incremental Gukexuqiu, They will usually predict a certain order for enlarged orders to wholesalers, wholesalers out of the same considerations will also summarize the basis of retail order further magnified in some order to the sales center. Thus, while the customers do not have big fluctuations in demand, but after retailers and wholesalers in order to enlarge, the order quantity on a one way magnified. In the investigation to its suppliers, such as 3M, the order situation, she was surprised to find that the change order more, and more to the upstream supply chain, the greater the deviation of its order. This is the marketing needs of variation in the magnification, one popularly known as the "bullwhip effect."
"Bullwhip effect" is a common phenomenon in marketing, because when all levels of the supply chain from their suppliers based only on the adjacent lower the demand for information vendors supply decisions, the authenticity will not demand information upstream along the supply chain, resulting in the phenomenon of sequential amplification to reach the best source suppliers (such as general distributor, or manufacturer of the product), its demand for access to information and actual customer demand in the consumer market information has undergone a drastic deviation, coefficient of variation of demand than the needs of distributors and retailers, the coefficient of variation is much greater. Because of this variation of demand amplification effect, upstream supply very often to maintain a higher than 鍏?downstream demand inventory level to meet Xiaoshou business orders of uncertainty which artificially Zengtai upstream in the supply chain that suppliers , supply, inventory management and marketing risks, and even lead to the production, supply, marketing confusion.
Have a "bullwhip effect" because there are six main areas, namely demand forecast correction, order quantity policy, price volatility, short game, inventory imbalances and response to environmental variation responsibility.
Demand amendment is adopted when the members of the supply chain ordering directly downstream demand information and data as a basis, they will generate demand amplification. For example, in marketing activities, if the retailer's history, the highest monthly sales of 1,000 units, but coincided with a major festival next month, in order to ensure the continued sale of goods, he will be on the basis of the highest sales in additional A%, so he under the orders of their superiors wholesalers (1 + A%) 1000 浠? Wholesale sales in the region is expected to aggregate after (assuming) for 12,000, he needs to ensure the retailer has an additional B%, so he orders the manufacturer (1 + B%) 12000 浠? Manufacturers need to ensure that wholesale goods, although he knows of which were overstated, but he did not know the circumstances, so he had to at least by (1 + B%) 12000 浠?production, and to play safe, considering the damage leakage provides such situation, he added volume production, this increase in bookings layer by layer, resulting in "bullwhip effect."
In the supply chain, each enterprise will be its upstream order, under normal circumstances, the vendor and not to a higher order on the supplier to order one, but considering the inventory and transportation costs, based on a cycle or summary to the supplier after a certain number of orders; order to reduce the frequency, reduce costs and avoid stock-out risk, sellers tend to increase the amount in accordance with the best economy of scale orders. Also frequently orders will increase the workload and costs vendors, suppliers often require sellers to order a certain number or certain period, then sellers of goods or as early as possible to get the goods in full, or to prepare for contingencies often artificially increased order, such as ordering policy led to the "bullwhip effect."
Price volatility is due to a number of promotions, or the economic environment caused by mutations, such as price discounts, quantity discounts, sweepstakes, and vicious competition and the shortage of competitors, inflation, natural disasters, social unrest. Such factors put many retailers and sales staff in advance purchase orders greater than the actual demand, because inventory costs less than the price discount as interest received, sales staff in advance of course willing to buy more, so order does not truly reflect the needs of changes, resulting in "bullwhip effect."
When demand is greater than supply, the rational decision-making is based on the proportion of orders for allocation of available supply, for example, the total supply is only 40% of order, a reasonable allocation method is 40% of their supply orders. At this time, vendors in order to obtain a larger share of the rations, intentionally exaggerated its order demand is inevitable, when the demand for cooling, the order has suddenly disappeared, such as the shortage game demand caused by the distortion of information eventually led to "beef whip effect. "
Responsibility for ordering inventory imbalances aggravated the demand amplification. Marketing operations, general practice is the first supplier of distribution in place pending completion of the sale after the settlement of vendors. A result of this system is that suppliers need to sellers (wholesalers, retailers) before the settlement amount in accordance with the seller is responsible for ordering the goods to the seller in designated areas, while the seller does not bear the cost of cargo handling; in excess supply of goods or damage occurs when the provider needs to bear the exchange, returns and other related losses, so that inventories of natural transfer of responsibility to the suppliers, so that vendors in a good position. While vendors when cash flow poor, due to a large number of stocks can be used as assets to use, so vendors will use these stocks and other suppliers, barter, Huozhe despite the provisions of the supplier price, low delivery, speed up recovery of its investment to ease cash flow difficulties; then, sales business by keeping the number of stocks can also be carried out as a game with the supplier of chips. Therefore, vendors generally tend to increase the order to seize the initiative, it will inevitably lead to "bullwhip effect."
Response to environmental variation arising from the uncertainty of demand amplification is to promote order increase of the real causes. Natural environment, human environment, policy environment and social environment change will increase market uncertainty. Vendors to address these uncertainties affect one of the most important means of maintaining inventory, and enhanced with these uncertainties, the concomitant changes in inventory. When the forecast uncertainty is artificially dyed declared, or the formation of a more general understanding, in order to maintain the security to cope with these uncertainties inventory, sales Chamber of Commerce to increase orders, transfer of risk of uncertainty to the supplier, so will lead to "bullwhip effect."
Second, solve the "bullwhip effect" approach
From the supplier perspective, the "bullwhip effect" in the supply chain vendors at all levels (total distributors, wholesalers, retailers) transfer risk and the result of speculation, it will lead to the production disorder, inventories, costs increase, channel blocking, market turmoil, risk increases, so will be able to properly address risk aversion, reducing efficiency. Enterprises from the following six aspects of comprehensive management.
1, order management at different levels
From the supplier point of view, not all vendors (wholesalers, retailers) the status and role are the same. In accordance with Pareto's law, they some are general dealers, some major vendors, and some key vendors, and the proportion of key vendors accounted for about 20%, it achieved sales of 80%. Therefore, suppliers should be based on certain criteria to classify vendors for different vendors divided into different grades, different levels of their order management, such as general sales agents for the implementation order to meet the management, major vendor for the order to adequate management, the key vendors for a perfect order management, so that you can live through the control key vendors and key vendors to reduce the mutation probability; in short supply, priority in order to ensure that key vendors; suppliers can also hierarchical management strategies, at the right time to eliminate unqualified vendors, maintaining the unity of vendors and channels management as a norm.
This approach has been in some good company good application effect is obvious, such as the 3M company for his services to key customers with perfect orders. In order to improve the quality of services, to ensure that key customers, 3M company introduced a new algorithm called "Platinum Club" of service measures. 3M, the "Platinum Club" members of the implementation of a variety of accidents safeguards to the main Place of Delivery out of stock, access to the necessary inventory to complete "Platinum" customer orders. These safeguards include reserves from the secondary site will be transferred out of inventory, and 3M, a worldwide search for other storage facilities in the inventory. Once these emergency measures in place, use of premium transportation services immediately to arrange direct delivery, even in exceptional circumstances, 3M Company will loan to the supply of goods sold "platinum" customers, he aims to do so is to ensure that in any case The key is able to provide comprehensive ordering service, and enhance the confidence of vendors, creating a good market environment, reduce demand amplification orders.
2, to enhance the storage management, and reasonable share of responsibility for inventory
Avoid artificial processing of the data supply chain is one way to get downstream to upstream business enterprises in the real demand information, so that upstream and downstream enterprises of the original data according to the same plan to develop supply and demand. For example, IBM, HP and Apple and other companies in the cooperation agreement explicitly required distributors to retailers, warehouse products, the central bank is fed back, although these data do not point of sale data from retailers, less comprehensive, but better than the Goods sent after the lost information on the goods much better.
The use of electronic data interchange (EDI) and other modern information technology to track the sales situation is resolved in due course "bullwhip effect" of the important methods, such as DELL through Internet / Intranet, telephone, fax, etc. to form a highly efficient information network, when the orders generated DELL when you can spread the information center, information center will be divided into sub-task orders, and through the Internet and information networks between enterprises assigned to the regional centers, regional centers by DELL assembly of electronic orders, in accordance with the agreed timetable time, on time delivery (usually less than 48 hours), so that order, manufacture, supply "one stop" complete, effectively prevent the "bullwhip effect" generated.
Joint inventory management strategy is a reasonable share of responsibility for inventory, to prevent the demand variability amplification of advanced methods. In the VMI environment, vendors do not need a large inventory advances will not increase the cash flow pressures on the contrary, will play a large inventory financing, and improve return on capital, or even from the inventory can to restrict the role of suppliers, it actually exacerbated the order of demand amplification, to enable the supplier to increase the risk of abnormalities. Joint inventory management is to amend this to make the right suppliers and vendors of balancing the responsibilities of a risk-sharing in the inventory management model, its suppliers and vendors have established a reasonable inventory costs, transportation costs and competition Xing stock loss sharing mechanism, the supplier of full responsibility for all sales business transformation Wei's part of the responsibility, so the two sides shared the cost and risk, benefit sharing, have Liyuxingcheng cost, Feng Xian Yu Xiaoyipingheng, so You Xiaodi suppress the "Niu whip effect "and increased production.
3, shortening lead time, outsourcing services
In general, the shorter lead time to set more accurate amount, and therefore encourages shorten the order of a break, "bullwhip effect" in a good way.
According to Wal-Mart's investigation, if the purchase of 26 weeks in advance, demand forecast error was 40%, if the purchase of 16 weeks in advance, then the demand forecast error was 20%, if the purchase in the sales season beginning, the demand forecast error of 10 %. Application of modern information systems through the timely access to sales information and goods flow, while the frequency of small quantities through a multi-joint shipping method to achieve takes to actually type order, so that further reduce the demand forecast error.
Use of outsourcing services, such as third-party logistics can also shorten the lead time and make small order to achieve the scale of operation, so vendors need not be from the same suppliers a one-time large numbers of orders. Although this will increase the additional processing costs and management costs, but as long as the cost savings than the cost of additional large, the application of this method is worth.
4, to avoid shortage of the game under the act
When faced with shortage of supply, suppliers can sell to customer records for the previous limit of supply, rather than the quantity ordered, so that you can prevent the vendors to supply more exaggerated your order. General Motors has long been done, many large companies such as Hewlett-Packard, also began to adopt this approach.
In short supply, distributors supply suppliers lack of understanding, it is easy to increase the degree of game. And vendors to share the situation of supply capacity and inventory information can ease the concerns of vendors, which to some extent, to prevent them in the game. However, the sharing of this information can not completely solve the problem, if the supplier before the advent of the shopping season to help vendors do a good job working order, they can better design and production capabilities and organization of the production schedule to meet the demand for the product, thereby reducing the production " bullwhip effect "of opportunity.
5, reference to historical information, the appropriate reduction amendment, sent in batches
Gong Ying registered under the analysis of historical data and current Huan Jing, Liang Shi Dang cut orders, while Wei ensure 闇?眰, vendors can use the inventory and joint Yun Shu Lianhe way Duo batch Fasong, so, at no extra cost premise, Ye Nenggou order to ensure the meet.
6, the period of payment, in advance
The period of payment, in advance, according to the logistics of payment, Arranging the Proportional delivery is Xiaochu order unrealistically high in a good way, because this book Shu Zuo Wei Zhi Shi Qiang beginning one kind of reference, the specific linkage of payment, the supply and to ensure the Dinggou and Distribution of double-loop management.
In advance of the specific method of payment, is divided into a number of accounting during the period, in each period (if that period is divided into three or four month period, each period of 10 days or 7 days) at the end should be back to section time; For how many days before the end of the period of payment, shall be given a positive price, and so on, would help promote the scheme.
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